Thoughts On Mobs and the Cyclical Nature of Things.

"There is no new thing under the sun."

Nature seems to move in vast sine waves, alternately peaking and troughing as it tumbles on through the void. These natural waves can be used to describe many things that are not always easily categorized together: economics, climate and politics. Economically, we go through a minor recession about every 10 years. We have a good likelihood of a major recession every 20-30 years. One of those major recessions can be reliably expected to be a depression about every 60-90 years.

Climate variability follows a similar rhythm-- 1,500-year warming or cooling trends. 10,000-year mini Ice Ages and 40,000-year major Ice Ages. 100,000-year solar variability.

Geo-politics follows about a 400-year cycle-- major empires rarely last longer. In our own political system, one-party domination tends to be a generational thing-- one party replaces the other every 25-30 years or so. Major civil unrest (and great political change) usually happens every 100 years or so.

Human (group) psychology is as predictable and cyclical as any one of the three things mentioned; it can, indeed, be driven by those things. The probability of a major recession or depression coinciding with a change of party domination is pretty high. It's no coincidence that human civilization as we know has sprung forth from one of the most climatically stable inter-glacial periods the records have to show us-- the last 12,000 years have been very good for settling down, as it were. Republican "philosophy" (such as it is) has dominated for the last 28 years (and since the last "major recession" of the late 70s) and is now being replaced by the Democratic "philosophy" (such as it is) on the heels of another major recession, at the least.

Group psychology is nothing more or less then a higher level (or more rationalized) herd mentality. We are pack animals in instinct, and tribal at best, so, when we react as a society to these major cyclical changes, we do so almost unthinkingly, on instinct and in great numbers.

Just as a cowboy on a good horse with a good dog or two can guide a herd, so, too can a particularly gifted leader lead the "herd" on these cyclical issues. We all sense (or think we sense, or are told that we sense) that the climate might be changing. In the old days, we'd just move, but civilization or nation-state can't do that-- it has to stay. But the herd instinct to do something, anything, is strong so we take any seemingly rational guidance we can find.

We all know that the economy is bad-- in the old days, we'd just move, but a civilization or nation-state can't do that-- it has to stay. So we lunge about spastically, looking for something to "fix it."

Goverment/politics is broke. We've recently chosen the Democratic Party to "fix" that, but, in my humble opinion, the herd is ready for real change and we may be due one of those times of great civil unrest and massive political change.

The convergence of these three cyclical waves at the same time-- global climate change, global economic downturn and the political system of a powerful (maybe the most powerful) empire in the world-- in its peak years, no less-- failing and the mob/herd demanding that it all be fixed, without possibly knowing enough to fix it...

As the Chinese would say, we live in interesting times. I highly doubt that we will come out of the 21st century into a world that looks anything at all like the world of the 20th century that we live in now. The choices we make now will decide how we come through the changes.