Winning Wars?

Yesterday, the New York Times ran an op-ed written by MICHAEL E. O’HANLON and KENNETH M. POLLACK. The two are self-professed critics of the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq War (who can blame them?) and its aftermath. After coming back from an 8 day trip to visit American and Iraqi forces, they found a remarkable thing:

The surge is working.

This is news to people who haven't been listening closely. The plan that the "surge" is using was actually hammered out by General Petraeus (the current commander of MNF-I) while he was commander of the 101st Airborne Division in northern Iraq (Kurd-country) in 2003-2004. The same general plan was used (completely coincidentally-- there's no evidence that Colonel McFarland (CMDR, 1BCT, 1AD) had devised any strategy with General Petraeus prior) to great effect by the 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Armored Division in Ramadi in the al Anbar province 2005-2006. What was once known as the center of the Sunni and AQI insurgency is now a stable region, where U.S. and Iraqi forces patrol without fear.

My brother, who was Scout platoon leader, battle captain and later S-1 of the 1/35th AR, 2BCT, 1AD (attached to the 1BCT) during the "Anbar Awakening" as it is now rather melodramatically being called, relayed to me an incredible story. He prefaced it by saying that he felt he was present at an historical moment; I'm paraphrasing, so any mistakes or omissions are completely my own, but apparently he and his battalion commander (whose name escapes me at the moment) were going to one of their regular, weekly or so meetings with one of the more powerful local sheiks-- these meetings were usually secret, to protect the sheik from reprisal. They walked into the building where these meetings took place, and were greeted by the sight of not one, but a dozen (or so) sheiks, all powerful men in their areas. The gist of the opening remarks was, "WE want to make a deal with the Americans."

My brother's battalion commander, naturally, said, "Let me get my boss."

The "head" sheik asked my brother's BCT Commander what he needed from the tribes, to which the Americans replied "300 police recruits would be a good start." After some assurances that the police would be used to patrol their own neighborhoods, the 2 parties shook hands and went home.

The next day there were 1,000 new Iraqi Police recruits lined up outside the main Ramadi Station.

Wars are won and lost based on how quickly the participants learn from there mistakes. The "small footprint" approach advocated by Generals Abezaid and Pace were, in hindsight, completely ineffective in fighting a counter-insurgent campaign. Counter-insurgency starts with "winning the hearts and minds" and you start winning the hearts and minds by a.) moving among and living with the people whose hearts you are trying to win and b.) providing security for those people.

The Sunni-based, AQI-led insurgency was able to maintain control of the population through intimidation and murder. We would strike and leave, allowing the insurgents to fill the vacuum left by us. Now, we have learned from our mistakes. We strike hard and stay, building COPs or "Combat Outposts" (imagine the stockaded forts of the Old West and "F-Troop" fame.) We patrol with increasingly brave, increasingly competent Iraqi Security Forces, we are pushing hard, on multiple fronts, never resting, never letting the enemy rest...

The AQI-led insurgents (there are very few Sunni-led insurgents at this point in time) haven't learned. They are still trying to intimidate the local populations with bombings and murders and kidnapings.

The most important thing to remember about winning wars is that one side has to lose. It is as important to say, loud, long and clear that the AQI-led insurgency is losing as it is to say that we and our allies are winning. In fact, it is important to say that AQI was never in a position to win; they could only win if we defaulted and left the field-- even a high school football team can win a game against the Indianapolis Colts, if the Indianapolis Colts leave midway through the second quarter.

I say "bravo" to those 2 brave reporters. They undoubtedly are going to be viciously attacked in the coming weeks. Thanks for putting out there what some of us already knew...